Listening to the media's analysis of the job reports last Friday, where 125,000 jobs were lost in the economy, reminded me of the old story about the pessimist and the optimist and the glass filled only to the mid-point. Is it "half-empty" as the pessimist would call it or "half-full" as the optimist would?

Pessimists read into the employment numbers, as one Wall Street Journal headline did, that the number just passed "the crash test" — meaning that the numbers were barely encouraging except for those looking for a "double dip" in the economy.

Optimists saw "steady but slow" growth in private sector employment over the past six to nine months, and the wow for them was how much better things were than last year, even as recently as last fall.

I'm not certain what camp I fall into naturally, but looking at ExecuNet's recruiter confidence indicators from June, it says to me that there is a fairly consistent consensus for continued "slow and steady." Fewer than 5 percent of recruiters are "not confident" that the employment market is improving, and 57 percent are either very confident or just plain confident that it is. They have felt this way for over nine months.

We continue to see growth in the number of companies and executive recruiters coming to our network to find candidates and ExecuNet's Executive Job Creation Index remains at a positive +18, which means the layoffs have stopped, and companies are starting to hire just not at robust levels.

The media is interested in the latest trends and exciting changes. They sell newspapers based on that. Just as you would not run your business based on one media report or one month's data, one should keep an even keel at times like these, ignoring all the monthly ups and downs and keeping a keen eye focused on the long-term trends — which continue to be positive.

What will really stimulate the economy and job creation is business confidence. We are in slow and steady because business confidence is battered by uncertainty. The fuel for any major expansion will be increased business confidence that fuels business investment. It won't be a stimulus or deficit reduction plan that does not encourage businesses, especially smaller businesses to invest.

When the government decides it wants to create the climate for growth and reduces some of the anti-business rhetoric that tends to retard business investment, I think we will see slow and steady move to more positive. We saw it in the last recession and are seeing it again now. We'll keep you posted on developments.

Mark Anderson
Mark Anderson is ExecuNet's president and chief economist. An Arjay Miller Scholar, Mark received his MBA from Stanford University and a BA in economics from Yale University. He joined ExecuNet in 1993, with extensive marketing and new product and business development experience, having served as president and founder of A&M Associates, an investment management firm. Mark's corporate leadership experience includes several senior marketing and financial positions with RCA Global Communications (a GE subsidiary) and American Can Company.

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