The January US Jobs Report reported some good news with the picture showing a real upswing in job creation since mid-2011 and a recovery back to those levels seen early last year:
much higher than expected 243,000 jobs created
unemployment dipped to 8.3%
257,000 private sector jobs were created in the month (14,000 public sector jobs were eliminated in January)
revisions to November also showed an additional increase in jobs created by 60,000
"Nothing is more important for our career success than making great people decisions," said Claudio Fernández-Aráoz, author of Great People Decisions at the 2011 World Business Forum, where ExecuNet exclusively reported. When he surveyed which of the thousands of business leaders in the audience were formally trained in this selection process, very few raised their hands.
Last month, we reported the significant upswing in our exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index, a trajectory that began in October. For the last nine years, this index has been a leading indicator for the economy and for executive hiring, and Friday's job report reinforced how strongly this indicator has led.
Consistent with what recruiters pointed to in September, and in a big way in our December survey, the employment picture continues to brighten.
Many economic releases last week supported the notion of continued growth for the US economy. The Purchasing Managers' Report (an indicator of a rebounding manufacturing sector) crossed into expansionary areas. The monthly jobs report showed the private sector added 140,000 new jobs and revisions from prior months continued to show strength.
But, the most important economic releases last week were the retail sales figures from Black Friday and the first holiday sales weekend. They indicated that the consumer was starting to spend — which for the economy has been the missing link for faster growth. Consumer spending makes up 70 percent of the US economy. Over the last three years, they have been deleveraging themselves. The Black Friday reports were the first sign that may be easing.
Once again, the number of companies expecting to recruit for senior-executive roles over the next six months is higher than the number of employers planning to shed management jobs during the same time, according to the results of a recent survey of 180 executive recruiters by ExecuNet.
In November, ExecuNet's benchmark Executive Job Creation Index stayed in positive territory, with companies planning to hire executives outnumbering those planning to engage in management cutbacks.
What surprised me most about Friday's job and unemployment report, was not 80K+ jobs added to the economy in October, but the revisions to prior months – notably August and September.
A lot of "hoopla" was generated in August when the jobs report showed no jobs were added to the economy. The media revved up talk about a "double dip recession." Coming on the heels of the government debt negotiations, the "pessimistic frenzy" was strong.
The Labor Department reported last Friday that employers added 103,000 jobs in September. Hiring was stronger than expected and well above consensus and upper range estimates. With 34,000 jobs lost in federal and state governments, private sector hiring increased jobs by a solid +137,000.
With positive revisions to the previous July release (going from +85,000 to +127,000 jobs) and the August release (going from 0 to +57,000 jobs added), there was further good news and strength in the employment situation — though unemployment remained unchanged at 9.1%.
Despite slowing overall economic signals, not many companies are indicating they expect to lay off executives in the next six months, and there remain pockets of hiring at the executive level — though hiring has clearly slowed from earlier in the year. Meanwhile, recruiter confidence declined for the fourth straight month to 32 percent and reached levels not seen since late 2008-early 2009 at the bottom of the last recession. This does not bode well for a near-term improvement in executive hiring.
Friday's jobs report showed an uptick in job creation and the lower unemployment claim numbers released on Thursday were another indicator that the jobs market is not on a downward spiral. This trend may be lost with all the other economic news that surrounded these releases and were clearly disturbing the financial markets over the last week.
The June jobs report, released last Friday, was clearly disappointing in its aggregate picture. The total economy gained just 18,000 jobs in June, sharply missing most expectations and coming in even weaker than the 25,000 jobs added in May and significantly down from the three months prior, which had averaged over 200,000 jobs created monthly.
If there was any good news, it was that private sector businesses continued to add jobs in June (+57,000) — but again at levels slightly lower than May (+73,000) and significantly lower than the average in February through April. Currently, the private sector continues to show job growth, while the public sector is a clear drag to the overall economic numbers.
Two leading indicators of projected executive job market expansion — a monthly forecast of management-level job creation and a separate reading on executive recruiter confidence — lost ground in June but continue to paint a generally positive portrait of management hiring plans over the next six months.
In June, 29 percent of 153 executive recruiters polled by ExecuNet reported they expect companies to leverage the economic climate over the next six months by adding new executive-level jobs. Also, 48 percent forecasted companies will "trade up" with new hires for existing management jobs to improve leadership bench strength. Another 15 percent indicated companies would elect not to add new management jobs, while seven percent anticipated employers would choose to avoid filling current management-level vacancies. Only 1 percent of executive recruiters expect companies to further eliminate executive jobs.
Executive job seekers and employed managers considering a career move would be wise not to put their career planning and professional networking on the shelf this summer.
Two leading indicators of projected executive job market expansion — a monthly forecast of management-level job creation and a separate reading on recruiter confidence — suggest continued hiring activity through the summer and fall. Recruiters expect 80 percent of employers to recruit for new management roles or trade up with new hires for existing roles.
At only 54,000 jobs created, the US jobs report on Friday was disappointing. Private sector jobs increased 83,000 but were still below the average of the first four months of 2011. Economists were expecting approximately 170,000 jobs to be added in May and similar numbers for the private sector.
One month does not make a trend, but the lower number of jobs created certainly shows a loss of momentum. It does continue to reinforce the unevenness of the recovery and shows the economy's continued slow advance against earlier hopeful expectations for a fuller rebound.
Why not go out on a limb? Isn't that where the bird is?
We can risk curiosity. In fact, business leaders have to. Without curiosity, our thinking gets small and our vision narrows. With it, real innovation and growth can happen.
We forget to hire for curiosity. The employee who asks "why" a lot; who is inner-directed and develops her own ideas; who is always doing that which she cannot do, so she may learn how to do it; who explores first and then considers whether she will accept the ramifications — that cat often winds up in lockdown.
In case you hadn't noticed, an economic recovery is underway. Albeit, it's slow, but business and hiring growth is occurring. For the 16th consecutive month, ExecuNet's Executive Job Creation Index posted gains, and again, recruiter confidence is high.
Two leading indicators of future job market expansion — a monthly forecast of executive job creation and a separate reading on recruiter confidence — remain decidedly strong in the face of a variety of cautions about the continued growth of the broader economy.
In April, 38 percent of 192 executive recruiters who participated in an ExecuNet survey reported they expect companies to leverage the economic climate over the next six months by adding new executive-level jobs, the highest number since the monthly index was created in May 2009. An equal number forecasted that companies will "trade up" with new hires for existing management jobs. Another 17 percent indicated that companies would elect not to add new management jobs, while five percent anticipated employers would choose simply to avoid filling current management-level vacancies. Only two percent of executive recruiters expect companies to further eliminate executive jobs.
On Friday, the US government released its job report for April, and it was good news. They showed growth in overall job creation in the economy of 244,000 jobs and even stronger private sector job growth of 268,000 jobs. Unemployment increased slightly to 9 percent as more people came back to the job market with the continuing improvement in the jobs market.
It was Mother's Day yesterday, and in deference to this holiday you may have missed some news; here are seven things you might not have heard about that are important:
As North American employers set their sights on achieving 2011 strategic goals, they are more focused on rebuilding and upgrading their senior management teams, according to the latest Executive Job Creation Index data.
In March, ExecuNet's exclusive Executive Job Creation Index revealed that 33 percent of employers are expected to add new executive management roles over the next six months, and 50 percent are forecast to leverage the economic climate by selectively trading up with new hires for existing executive jobs. Only 2 percent of employers are expected to continue eliminating executive jobs during the same period of time according to the 155 executive recruiters who participated in the monthly ExecuNet poll. The remaining 15 percent of employers were expected either to avoid adding new management roles or choose not to fill existing leadership vacancies.
The "job market gained momentum" is the way the media is portraying the positive increase in jobs in March. They were at 216,000 jobs added in March, up from 192,000 in February. The government also reported that unemployment decreased from 8.9 percent to 8.8 percent — its lowest level in two years. These numbers were slightly above market expectations of 195,000 jobs added and unemployment holding steady at 8.9 percent.
The good news is that private sector employment increased even more, adding 236,000 jobs last month. They also raised their estimate of the number of jobs added in February by about 30,000 jobs, from 212,000 to 240,000.
Since 2010 didn't produce an exuberant recovery, many are already pinning high hopes that the economy and job market will strengthen in 2011, and while it's still early, there are positive signals. Executive recruiters are at their highest registered confidence level since the second quarter of 2008 and fewer companies are expected to eliminate jobs, which bodes well for at least the first half of this year.
On ExecuNet TV, ExecuNet President and Chief Economist Mark Anderson revealed the story behind the stats, where to find opportunities, and how to maximize success in this new business climate. Find out what he says are the things you can do right now to start your career off right in the new year.
ExecuNet's benchmark Executive Job Creation Index (EJCI) held positive for an eleventh consecutive month in November as executive recruiters reported employers are encouraged by improving economic indicators and plan to create more management jobs over the next six months.
The number of employers expected to add executive jobs during that time topped those planning to eliminate or postpone filling top roles by 21 points, a 12-point gain from October and a signal that more companies will recruit executive talent to rebuild their management teams and realize their 2011 strategic growth objectives.
Recruiters Confident As Small-to-Medium Sized Companies Lead Hiring
ExecuNet's benchmark Executive Job Creation Index (EJCI) held positive for a tenth consecutive month in October, as executive recruiters report employers plan to create more management jobs over the next six months.
The rate of hiring among employers expected to add executive jobs during that time outpaced those planning to eliminate or postpone filling top roles by nine points, extending a positive trend increasingly shaped by a steady increase in hiring by small-to-mid-sized companies with annual sales revenue between $11 million and $500 million.
Healthcare, High-Tech Lead Modest but Sustained Hiring Recovery
ExecuNet's benchmark Executive Job Creation Index (EJCI) held positive for a ninth consecutive month in September, reflecting the slow but continuing rebuild of many corporate management teams.
The rate of hiring among employers expected to add executive jobs in the next six months outpaced those planning to eliminate or postpone filling top roles by seven points, extending a positive trend but still weighed down by employer hesitancy to hire for top jobs.
The September Job Creation Index, based on an ExecuNet survey of 147 executive recruiters, reveals that executive recruiters anticipate 44 percent of companies will leverage the economic climate by selectively "trading up" management talent with new hires for existing executive roles, and 23 percent will add new leadership roles.
ExecuNet's Executive Job Creation Index (EJCI) dropped seven points in August, reflecting slower business hiring activity anticipated in the next six months. However, the rate of hiring among those who expect to add executive jobs in the next six months outpaced those planning to eliminate or postpone filling top positions by four points, reflecting a positive — if cautious — hiring trend.
The August EJCI data, based on an ExecuNet survey of 181 executive recruiters, revealed that executive recruiters anticipate 53 percent of companies will leverage the economic climate by selectively "trading up" management talent with new hires for existing executive roles, and 20 percent will add new leadership roles.
Despite the media noise about the broader job market, there continues to be an undercurrent of executive recruiting activity that most people will never read about.
Consider the latest ExecuNet data that reveals 92 percent of executive recruiters believe there is a hidden job market, and the majority of them don't routinely advertise their new and ongoing search assignments on their website or a job board. On ExecuNet TV, ExecuNet President and Chief Economist Mark Anderson breaks the hidden job market down into three components and suggests some tactics for uncovering those opportunities.
Executive-level hiring forecast by US recruiters remained positive for the seventh consecutive month, with companies expected to add more management jobs than they plan to eliminate in the next six months, according to ExecuNet's July Executive Job Creation Index.
"As job creation continues at a slow and steady pace, the real story is in the amount of quiet hiring going on," noted ExecuNet President and Chief Economist Mark Anderson. "The hidden job market is growing. Half of the hiring reflected in the survey is to replace or upgrade existing roles to fit new corporate growth strategies and talent needs."