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Filed Under: Rci

 
Our mission is to keep you posted about the trends in the executive employment market.

As we come around the turn of the middle of the year, we are seeing a much more positive tone to the executive employment market, if not real growth.

 

Published on: Friday, February 14, 2014

Recruiter Confidence Over 50 Percent in January

Posted By: Mark Anderson
Filed Under: mark anderson, recruiter confidence index, employment, recruiters, careers, rci
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For over three years, the monthly US Government Jobs Report has felt like the mythological story of Sisyphus. About every time, it seems we have "pushed the bolder up the hill and over the top, it rolls back down" — over us. December's and January's average overall growth in jobs frames that story and disappointment accurately: 94,000 jobs added, versus the previous 10 months which averaged around 180,000 per month.

Fortunately, in 2014, though overall job growth may be up and down, executive recruiters are starting to report a different story at the executive level — at least in the surveys we just completed that help us fulfill our mission to keep you informed about the executive employment market.

 

Published on: Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Recruiter Confidence Index Shows More Uncertainties Ahead

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The most recent US Jobs Report was a very good one, indicating over 200K+ jobs were added to the economy in October. This job creation was a surprise to economists, as they were only expecting a little over 100,000 jobs to be added. The day before, the US government indicated that in the third quarter US GDP grew at 2.8 percent, again above economists' expectations.

What does it mean to executives in a job search or leaders looking to add to their teams?

 

 
The executive jobs picture has not changed much as we march into the fourth quarter.

Despite, or as a result of, the uncertainty in Washington, there is no major robust change in the slow growth trend we have seen for employment in 2013. Forty-plus percent of executive recruiters think the executive job market is going to improve in the next six months (our exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index is at 42 percent in September and has been in the low 40 percent area for most of the year). History tells us that if our RCI gets above 50 percent, we'll see real growth in executive hiring.

 

 
The tone of the executive hiring market turned less optimistic in August. After hovering for five months in the mid-40s, our Recruiter Confidence Index dropped to 39 percent. Importantly, the number of recruiters not confident that executive hiring would increase over the next 12 months climbed to 18 percent, the highest it has been since the end of last year.

 

 
ExecuNet's exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index continued to hover at 44 percent in July and in the low 40 percent range for the fifth month in a row. This continues to indicate that recruiters are not expecting, over the next six months, a major change in the modest level of executive job growth we have seen over the past year. If the RCI were to move above the 50 percent level, we would expect a more broad-based growth in executive hiring vs. the pockets of hiring we have seen recently.

 

 
At 43 percent, ExecuNet's exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index continues to show recruiter confidence for the next six months will improve. It has remained at this level for the third month in a row, which confirms no change in overall executive hiring. If the RCI were above 50 percent, we would be looking for a more broad-based expansion.

When you are used to being on a bit of a roller coaster, stability feels like good news, and certainly the solid and more consistent tone and remarks from the Federal Reserve about ending quantitative easing is a hopeful sign that the economy is becoming stronger.

 

 
The "tea leaves" for the next six months continue to point neither to an expansion of the executive job market, or to a further slowdown.

Our exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index continues to show that about 45 percent of recruiters think the executive job market is going to improve in the next six months. This has been constant for the last three months. Importantly, 43 percent are in the "middle" and only "somewhat confident" it will improve, and 12 percent are not confident at all that it is going to improve — clearly in industry sectors that are not showing signs of growth. The May US Job Market Report just came in and points to job creation at about 175,000 jobs per month — no breakthroughs seen there either.

 

 
At 42 percent in April, ExecuNet's Recruiter Confidence Index, languished just below the 50 percent mark which indicates a major advance. Solid, but not breakout, job creation and economic growth is likely to continue into the second quarter, unlike last year when it did not follow through and dipped back after a fairly strong first quarter, averaging just 100,000 jobs added per month.

 

 
ExecuNet's exclusive index of recruiter confidence remained in the mid-forties — below the important 50 percent level that would signal a major advance — and well above 30 percent where it languished last year. Since this measure of confidence is forward looking, it may suggest the dip in job creation is not a new trend. Given the up and down of the market the last several years, we see this weakening as just more ebb and flow in slow upwardly trending market.

 

Published on: Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Assignments Expected to Increase in 2013

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Recruiter confidence in the executive market rebounded in January. Forty-six percent think the executive employment market will improve over the next six months, up from 32 percent two months ago.

Recruiter optimism extends to the expected increase in search assignments as recruiters predict a 20 percent increase in 2013. This came after a year where recruiters reported an 11 percent increase in assignments.

 

Published on: Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Recruiter Confidence Still Lagging

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Recruiter confidence for the next six months improved a bit, moving to 36 percent at the end of December 2012, but remained below 50 percent for the eighth month in row, Being above the 50 percent mark is a critical overall indicator of an expanding executive employment market.

Attitudes captured before the fiscal cliff negotiations completed on January 1, continued to show the overall lack of recruiter confidence that this market trend will change over the next six months. Recruiters still tend to believe, as they expressed last year, that lack of leadership in Washington to create a national climate for business growth was the problem.

 

Published on: Monday, December 10, 2012

Recruiter Confidence Wanes Post-Election

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The increasing confidence that executive recruiters showed in October prior to the election reversed in November. Recruiter confidence plunged from 46 percent to just over 30 percent, dipping to the lowest level of confidence registered this year. Meanwhile, the number of executive recruiters who are not confident the executive job market will improve increased to the highest levels seen in the last four years.

 

Published on: Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Recruiter Confidence Jumps in October

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Even before the November election, recruiters were growing more confident that the executive job market would improve over the next six months. ExecuNet's exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index jumped to 46 percent in October, just below the important 50 percent level that would signal a more expansive and broad based recovery of the executive job market over the next six months.

 

 
ExecuNet's exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index continued at low levels in September and remained below 40 percent. It says that while there are pockets of opportunity, recruiters are not seeing a broad-based improvement in the overall executive employment market for the next six months.

 

 
ExecuNet's exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index (RCI) dipped lower in August and continued for the third consecutive month below 40 percent. Recruiters continue to say that there is no broad-based expansion in hiring in this slow growth economy. An RCI above 50 percent would signal a broad-based expansion.

 

 
ExecuNet's exclusive Recruiter Confidence Index was flat from June to July and still below 40 percent. What this means to you is recruiters are not seeing a broad based improvement in the overall executive employment market for the near-term. Since 40 percent are confident or very confident — it seems there are pockets for opportunity, but not across the board. When the index climbs over 50 percent is an indicator or a more broad-based improvement in the executive hiring market.

 

 
June was the 30th consecutive month with a positive Executive Job Creation Index since the recession of 2008-2009. However, in June, we saw Executive Job Creation Index dip to +8, down from +24 in February, 2012.

The good news is that executive recruiters continue to see almost one in five companies planning to add executive level positions in the next six months. They also only see about 3 percent of companies planning to eliminate executive jobs over the next six months. The major dip in the index in June came about by more companies placing current searches on hold.

 

 
In the last 12 months, recruiter confidence rose from 28 percent last September to peak in March 2012 at 58 percent. It has now retrenched to 39 percent in June. Being below 50 percent indicates recruiters are not very confident that the overall executive job market will expand over the next six months — just like the middle of last year.

 

 
A monthly ExecuNet survey of executive recruiters finds that fewer executive recruiters are confident that employers will invest in recruiting senior management talent for key corporate roles in the next six months.

 

 
A monthly ExecuNet survey of executive recruiters finds most are confident the executive employment market will improve over the next six months, despite some slippage in that hiring indicator last month and a flurry of headlines about the sluggishness of the broader jobs market.

 

 
A monthly ExecuNet survey of executive recruiters finds the highest levels of confidence that the executive employment market will improve over the next six months since May 2011.

In March, ExecuNet's benchmark Recruiter Confidence Index revealed that 59 percent of 123 responding executive recruiters indicated they were "confident" or "very confident" the executive employment market would improve over the next six months.

 

 
Confidence among executive recruiters dipped slightly in February but remained in positive territory as more of them expressed concern about the pace of corporate management hiring in the short-term.

In February, ExecuNet's benchmark Recruiter Confidence Index revealed that 51 percent of 130 responding executive recruiters indicated they were "confident" or "very confident" the executive employment market would improve in the next six months. That was down six points from January but above the important 50 percent level that historically indicates optimism for a broader expansion of the jobs market.

 

 
Confidence among executive recruiters edged up slightly in January as they projected that one in five companies will be adding executive level positions and almost six in 10 companies will selectively "trade up" their management bench strength by recruiting replacements for existing roles over the next six months. Only 1 percent of employers were expected to eliminate executive positions during the same period.

 

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